The beginning of the end for blogging?

John Dvorak writes:

Blogs, or Web logs, are all the rage in some quarters. We're told that blogs will evolve into a unique source of information and are sure to become the future of journalism. Well, hardly. Two things are happening to prevent such a future: The first is wholesale abandonment of blog sites, and the second is the casual co-opting of the blog universe by Big Media... According to the survey of bloggers, over half of them are not updating any more. And more than 25 percent of all new blogs are what the researchers call "one-day wonders." Meanwhile, the abandonment rate appears to be eating into well-established blogs: Over 132,000 blogs are abandoned after a year of constant updating... Perseus thinks that most blogs have an audience of about 12 readers. Leaflets posted on the corkboard at Albertsons attract a larger readership than many blogs. Some people must feel the futility.

It's too soon to write the obituary for blogs. I do think they'll eventually pass on, but surprisingly, I'm optimistic that they'll be replaced by something even better. For now, I'll just enjoy and not worry about the trends.

Comments

[TravisM]

Personally I've never enjoyed reading anything from John Dvorak, he almost always has a negative voice in anything he writes. I for one, think I'll always blog, or do something similar.

[Jordon Cooper]

Dvorak has always mocked blogs and has never really understood them. His famous flame war with Rageboy comes to mind over the Cluetrain and blogs is legendary. Sure a lot of blogs are created and abandoned but it comes down to how you see blogs. Are jordoncooper.com and DashHouse really small magazines or dinner parties for all of our friends. If they are magazines, I don't think they have a lot of value if you are John Dvorak, if they are online porches or dinner parties where frieds gather, I think they have much more value.

[Bene Diction]

Dvorak has been singing this tune awhile now, as Jordon noted. The Perseus Study said a lot of other things too. I don't think blogging is going to fade away any time soon. It won't be up to the nay-sayers, will it. Blog on!

[jeremy]

dude you wrote like 900 entries since i last looked and that was only 5 days ago... if blogs are going to die... yours will be the last to go. p.s. - the twelve that read my site comfort me.

[Sandy McMurray]

In other news, commercial television is dead. Television is all the rage in some quarters and we're told that TV will evolve into something called "HDTV" in the near future. Don't hold your breath. Many television "channels" have only a tiny niche audience and are struggling to stay alive. According to a survey of network executives, more than 75% of the new programs developed for the 2003/2004 schedule have already been cancelled. More significantly, over 95% of the cancelled shows have stopped producing new episodes. This trend appears to be affecting existing programming as well. Many well-established series (including I Love Lucy, M*A*S*H, and Barney Miller) have been abandoned after years of constant production. Yes, TV is doomed and that's good, because I've never really understood its appeal. Sandy

[kevin]

I know I'm not supposed to say mean things about people. But Dvorak is a drip.